Compensatory picks should be interesting for the Titans in 2014

While I was working on my analysis of the draft some thoughts occurred to me about next year's draft and the Titans trade of their 3rd round pick. It will be interesting to see if the Titans get any compensatory picks next year. Why do you say? Let's take a look

The exact formula for compensatory picks is super secret but generally speaking  a team losing more or better compensatory free agents than it acquires in the previous year is eligible to receive compensatory draft picks. NFL awards 2013 compensatory picks 

In order to receive a comp pick, the team must have lost a free agent and have not replaced that player with a quality free agent, based on salary, playing time and post season awards. The two players the Titans lost with the best free agent contracts are Jared Cook and Matt Hasselbeck. Sen'Derrick Marks signed with the Jags but his contract is for one year and 1.5 million (fully guaranteed). The Titans signed former Lions DT Sammie Lee Hill to a 3 year 11.4 million dollar contract that has 4 million guaranteed. 

Jared Cook signed a 5 year 35.11 million dollar contract so he is the most likely candidate for a comp pick. His deal contains a 19 million dollar guarantee and he is clearly a player the Rams are looking to get playing time and production. They did draft Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey and Zac Stacy though so its certainly possible his potential production suffers for it.

By contrast, the Titans signed former San Francisco Forty Niner Delanie Walker (one of my free agent wishes) to a 4 year 17.5 million dollar deal with 8.6 million guaranteed. Despite the addition of Justin Hunter, Walker is certain to see a lot of playing time.

Matt Hasselbeck signed with the Colts on a 2 year 7.25 million dollar contract with 3 million guaranteed. Hasselbeck will be backing up incumbent Andrew Luck and if he sees significant playing time its bad news for the Colts and for Luck.

By contrast, the Titans signed former Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to a 2 year 6.5 million dollar contract with a base salary of 3.25 million. Given questions regarding Jake Locker's shoulder it is certainly possible Fitzpatrick could see playing time.

While there are still some free agents unsigned, it is highly unlikely anyone gets a contract worth considering. I think a good argument can be made that if the Titans do get a compensatory pick it is because of a failure of their free agency strategy

A Look at Shonn Greene - Titans Bright Shiny New Running Back

During their spending spree in the first few days of free agency, the Titans signed former Jets running back Shonn Greene to a 3 year $10 million dollar deal that reportedly contains $4.5 million in guaranteed money. The Titans needed another back to compliment Chris Johnson so the signing makes sense in the larger picture. The conventional wisdom is that the Titans needed a power back to pair with "CJ2k" but is that what they are really thinking? Let's take a look.

The 27 year old Greene was drafted by the New Yorks Jets in the 3rd round (#65) of the 2009 NFL Draft. The Jets give up a 3rd (76), a 4th (115) and a 7th (228) round pick to move up and pick the former Iowa Haweye running back. Greene had a somewhat interesting career at Iowa but after doing some research I came to respect him even more than I already did. NFL Draft Profile

Greene entered the league at 24 and I was a bit concerned about mileage but he spent a year at Kirkwell College getting academically eligible to return to play for Iowa and he did not play football. Still, in his college career he ran 387 plays from scrimmage and racked up 2300 yards and 22 TDs (5.9 avg). One interesting note is that his college coaches almost converted him to linebacker and he did play some defensive back. His last year at Iowa, he rushed for 1850 yards on 307 carries (6.0 avg) with 20 TDs. He added 8 receptoins for 49 yards (6.1 avg). He was a consensus All American that year. Hawkeyes College Profile

I had a general sense of Greene due to my research prior to last season's Monday Night Football game, where I noted it was quite impressive he put up such respectable numbers while the Jets offense was pretty terrible (he did run behind a stellar offensive line). However, I went into this analysis without any preconceived notions in order to take a fresh look at Greene. What did I find? Let's take a look.

In 2009, Greene joined a Jets roster that also consisted of Leon Washington, Danny Woodhead and Thomas Jones. Jones would rush for 1402 yards on 331 carries that year. Greene himself would play 583 snaps, carry the ball 162 times for 846 yards and 4 TDs. He lost 3 fumbles. He was targeted 3 times in the passing game and had 1 reception for 4 yards. This averaged out to be about 24% of all offensive snaps.Not bad at all for a rookie year.  

In 2010, Greene assumed a larger role in the Jets offense this year running behind newly acquired Jets running back LaDainian Tomlinson. LT would tote the rock 219 times for 914 yards that year (4.2 avg). Greene himself would add 448 snaps and 230 carries for 968 yards (4.2 avg) and 3 TDs. He lost 2 fumbles.  In the passing game, he was targeted 25 times and had 17 receptions for 129 yards (7.6 avg) and 0 TDs. He played 35.4% of the offensive snaps.

In 2011, Greene assumed his largest role in the Jets offense even though LT was still on the roster and the Jets had added Joe McKnight. Greene played 577 snaps, carried the ball 253 times for 1054 yards (4.2 avg) with 6 TDs. He lost 1 fumble. In the passing game he was targeted 40 times for 30 receptions (an amazing 75% catch rate) for 211 yards (7.0 avg). He played 51.2% of the offensive snaps. 

In 2012, Greene assumed the bulk of the workload in the Jets running game. He played 583 snaps while carrying the ball 276 times for 1063 yards (3.9 avg) and 8 TDs. He lost 3 fumbles. In the passing game, he was targeted 26 times and had 19 receptions for 151 yards and 0 TDs. His catch rate was 73.1 % and he had an average per catch of 7.9. 

While these numbers are interesting, I don't believe they are illustrative of what Greene brings to the Titans offense. If you look a little bit closer, and compare him to Chris Johnson, you see why the Titans chose Greene to "compliment" CJ2K. Chris Johnson is fast but he simply isn't a very well rounded running. There, I said it. His blocking has never been very good.

2009

2010

2011

2012

Since 2009, CJ2K has never played less than 70% of all offensive snaps. In 2009 he played 86.4% of all offensive snaps. That same year he gave up 11 quarterback hurries. 

In 2010, CJ2K played 83.8% of the offensive snaps and gave up 1 quarterback sack, 2 quarterback hits and 7 quarterback hurries. 

In 2011, CJ2K played 70% of the offensive snaps and gave up 6 quarterback hurries. 

In 2012, CJ2K played 81.4% of the offensive snaps and gave up 3 quarterback sacks, 3 quarterback hits and 5 hurries.

By contrast, in 2009 Greene didn't give up anything although in all fairness he wasn't used very much in the passing game. That soon changed as his role gradually expanded in that capacity. 

2009

2010

2011

2012

In 4 full seasons, Greene has only given up 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback hurries. By contrast over that time period, CJ2K has given up 4 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback hurries. 

I agree the Titans likely signed Greene to "compliment" CJ2K in the larger scheme of things. I do not believe he will be used strictly in short yardage situations and goal line opportunities. It simply doesn't make sense monetarily to sign him to the contract he got and only give him limited carries. Furthermore, Greene can help in the passing not only by blocking too as he was a pretty good receiver for the Jets. I could see the Titans getting CJ2K more involved in the passing game allowing him to take advantage of his speed. 

Furthermore, and this is pure speculation, but I also wonder if the Titans brought in both Greene and Delanie Walker to incorporate the "pistol read" into their offense. There have been varying reports on the extent to which they might use the currently popular scheme which some indication it is being considered. If so, Greene and Walker would appear to be perfect compliments to run the pistol. 

The San Francisco Forty Niners run this offense well and they do it often using a 2 WR, 1 TE and 2 RB personnel grouping. In its purest form, the Niners formation takes advantage of a power running game and a spread passing game. Walker is certainly familiar with this concept having just operated out of it in the Bay area. Greene adds the power running component the Titans didn't have on the roster. Let's not forget the Titans also just brought the powerful Quinn Johnson back as well. These pieces all add up to at the least the foundation for running the pistol.

In summary, I think the addition of Shonn Greene foreshadows some changes to the 2013 Titans offense that not only will help Jake Locker in a crucial year, but that fans are going to love.

A Look at Delanie Walker - Another New Toy For the Titans

As I indicated in my post on Andy Levitre, the Titans didn't waste any time in free agency, signing first Andy Levitre and then Delanie Walker. I am particularly excited about Walker since I called repeatedly for it to happen. Hey, I'm human that way.

The Titans made it clear they wanted to keep Jared Cook but that deal always seemed like a long-shot as his expectations were high (he would ultimately get a 5 year $35.1 million deal with $19 million guaranteed from Jeff Fisher's Rams with an additional money available through incentives) and his interest in remaining with the Titans low (he complained about his role during the 2012 season). Enter Delanie Walker the former Niner who labored under the shadow of Vernon Davis in San Francisco.

Within hours of the new league year, the Titans had also "inked" a deal with the former Niner, signing him to a 4 year, $17.5 million dollar contract with $8.6 million of it guaranteed. At a $4.375 million per year average, the Titans paid a lot less and in my opinion got a player who better fits what they do and need. Bonus? He wants to be here and that can't be overstated. Why do I think he fits what the Titans do better? Let's take a look.

The Titans have always used their tight ends and they tend to get a ton of snaps. Just take a look at the Titans offensive summaries since Jared Cook was drafted in the 2009 NFL Draft in the 3rd round (pick 89), trading their 2010 2nd round pick for the opportunity to trade up and draft him.

As the saying goes, numbers don't lie and the numbers say that tight ends do work here. While the Titans generally have the so called "blocking" tight end and the "receiving" tight end having a guy who can do both is really optimal and allows you more flexibility. The expectation was that Cook's blocking would improve along with his receiving abilities and while he improved in both areas he never really made it past the "hump."

In 4 years with the Titans, Cook played 1434 snaps and totaled 131 receptions out of 214 targets for 1,717 yards and 8 touchdowns. He averaged 13.1 yards per catch and lost 3 fumbles. He generally lost playing time in 2012 because he blocking wasn't very good and the Titans needed help on the offensive line so they utilized their tight ends who could block better.

On the other hand, Delanie Walker was drafted in the 6th round of the 2006 draft (175th) by the Niners and has never played for another team. He has 123 receptions on 213 targets for 1,465 yards and 8 touchdowns. That yields an 11.9 yard per catch average and he has also lost 3 fumbles.

Not only are the numbers not that dissimilar, but what is more telling is that Jared Cook has never ranked above Delanie Walker on PFF's rankings of tight ends as you can see from the graphics below. Now in all fairness Cook didn't produce enough stats to warrant inclusion in 2009 and 2010, still he should have easily eclipsed a second string tight end playing behind Vernon Davis yet he didn't.

2009 TIGHT END RANKINGS PER PFF

2010 TIGHT END RANKINGS PER PFF

2011 TIGHT END RANKINGS PER PFF

2012 TIGHT END RANKINGS PER PFF

The one knock against Walker is that he made PFF's list of top drop rates in 2012 with 9. Jared Cook had 5 but I do recall disagreeing during the season on their evaluation of his drops versus uncatchable balls. It should be noted that fellow teammate, and starter Vernon Davis, made the top 10 drop rate going back 3 years however at 10.7% or 24 drops. ProFootball Focus

According to Football Outsiders, in 2012 Jared Cook had a catch rate of 61% while Delanie Walker had a catch rate of 54%. In 2011, Cook had a catch rate of 60% and Walker a catch rate of 56%. Both guys fared MUCH better in 2010 where Cook had a catch rate of 64% while Walker had a catch rate of 65%. In 2009 Cook had a catch rate of 60% and Walker had a catch rate of 64%. Football Outsiders

Overall, the numbers just aren't staggeringly different although you do have to be somewhat concerned about the downward trend in catch rate for Walker. Still, its hard sometimes for a guy coming cold off the bench to get a rhythm and you just have to hope the trend goes back to where it was in 2009 and 2010. The blocking improvement should counterbalance that as well as you get a more rounded tight end who can line up and play multiple positions and allow you some flexibility at the position.