Predicting the 2013 Titans Roster

Predicting the Titans 53 at this point in the offseason is completely and totally crazy. So of course I did it.

OFFENSE (24)

Quarterbacks (2)

Jake Locker and Ryan Fitzpatrick

Running Backs (5)

Halfbacks: Chris Johnson, Shonn Greene, Jalen Parmele and Darius Reynaud
Fullback: Quinn Johnson

Offensive Line (8)

Chance Warmack, Andy Levitre, Michael Roos, David Stewart, Byron Stingley, Fernado Velasco, Daniel Baldridge and Brian Schwenke

Wide Receivers (6)

Nate Washington, Justin Hunter, Kendall Wright, Damien Williams, Michael Preston and Kevin Walter

Tight End (3)

Craig Stevens, Delanie Walker, and Taylor Thompson

DEFENSE (26)

Defensive Line (9) 

Jurrell Casey, Sammie Lee Hill, Mike Martin, Kamerion Wimbley, Derrick Morgan, LeVar Edwards, Karl Klug, Antonio Johnson, and Ropati Pitoitua

Allergic to contact my hindparts

Linebackers (7)

Akeem Ayers, Zach Brown, Colin McCarthy, Zaviar Gooden, Moise Fokou, Tim Shaw and Greg Jones

Defensive Backs (10)

Cornerback (5)

Jason McCourty, Alterraun Verner, Coty Sensabaugh, Blidi Wreh-Wilson, and Khalid Wooten

Safety (5)

Bernard Pollard, George Wilson, Michael Griffin, Al Afalava and Damion Stafford

SPECIAL TEAMS (3)

Place Kicker (1)

Rob Bironas

Punter (1)

Brett Kern

Longsnapper (1)

Beau Brinkley

NOTES:

Competition is going to be very steep at all positions this year. I went a bit heavy on defense and was tempted to go heavier with 10 defensive linemen but I just couldn't justify it. The last defensive line position was hard to pick as well. I had previously picked Keyunta Dawson to make the roster.

It was hard to choose the last linebacker spot and Patrick Bailey has been a very good special teamer for the Titans. Greg Jones has some injury issues so its possible Bailey could take that last spot but if he is healthy I just think Jones is the better linebacker. 

Also, I think its very possible the last cornerback spot will be a battle between Verner, Wooten and Tommie Campbell. I like Campbell he was a guy I identified his first year in camp as a possible starter in the making but some really bad decisions on special teams has cost him. I also like Verner but I think it's fair to see he could be the odd man out here if he struggles with press coverage. I put Wooten on the roster based on special teams ability which of course will be key to whoever earns the spot.

It's possible the Titans could go 4 at safety and add another cornerback spot but they were so light at the position in 2012 I just find it hard to believe. Since they run 3 safety packages it makes sense to me to have 5 safeties. I struggled not putting Tracy Wilson on the roster and that back end spot is of course up for grabs. I chose Stafford simply due to his special teams ability where of course any guy will need to excel to take that spot. 

On offense, I just don't see the Titans carrying 3 quarterbacks this season even though Locker has an injury history. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good backup and has been very durable in his career. I do expect the Titans will carry a quarterback on the practice squad who does what Locker and Fitzpatrick can do in the offense. As much as I like Rusty Smith he just doesn't fit the mold.

I picked Quinn Johnson as the fullback but he and Collin Mooney had a fierce battle in camp last year and Mooney ended up on the roster at the end of the season. That is a battle to watch again this year. I almost didn't put Reynaud on the roster in lieu of adding another defensive back but I don't see the Titans going into the season with 3 halfbacks (although Johnson and Mooney could do in a pinch).

On the offensive line, I chose Velasco and Baldridge for versatility. Velasco because he can play both guard and center while Baldridge can play either tackle position. I think this is a big year for Stingley, a guy who stood out in camp last year but didn't see much action. Mike Otto can play tackle and guard so its possible he sneaks in on the back end in lieu of another guy. 

Finally, I put Kevin Walter at the back end of the receiver list but I think its entirely possible a young receiver could take that spot. In fact, the back end of the receiver roster in my opinion is wide open. I would put the only sure picks as Washington, Wright and Hunter. While uber talented, I think Kenny Britt will have to earn a spot this year along with everyone else. 

Bonus Pix:

So, there you have it. Who would you choose for your Titans 53 man roster?

Pardon the Pub - 1st Titans Report for NFL Female

Hey guys and gals, last night was my first podcast for NFL Female and we talked some Titans football. Check it out!

Click me!!!  

Locker Up - How Good Does the Titan Quarterback Need to be in 2013?

Much of the Titans offseason talk has included discussion of third year quarterback Jake Locker, his "accuracy issue" and whether Ryan Fitzpatrick could push him for a starting job. In my "hot seat" list I did include Locker for reasons that are readily apparent in the article. Clearly Locker has to improve on his 2012 season. Having said that, I do believe there is potential for expectations to be too high for Locker. Why do you ask? Let me explain.

Locker was drafted in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft and played sparingly his first season. With limited snaps however, he looked good.

I think we often forget how good Locker looked that year and how excited everyone was about what they saw in his performance. Sadly, his performance in 2012 was marred by injury, not only to himself but on the offensive line. Add to that inconsistency in the running game and some inexcusable drops from his receivers and his 2012 looks bad.

Two things in particular concern me about Locker's 2012 and neither really have to do with "accuracy" per se. One, he had 11 batted passes and that didn't appear to be an issue in 2011 (he had 2). His release point does seem a little low and how much of that was attributed to guarding and his left shoulder injury is a question mark for me. Regardless, that is an area he must work on.

OUCH

Locker took 5 sacks in his rookie campaign out of 76 dropbacks. In 2012 he took 25 sacks out of 370 dropbacks. His most significant injury occurred when he was sacked by Glover Quin. Of course, this isn't all Locker's fault. Chris Johnson needs to block better for one. I also think former offensive coordinator Chris Palmers' system contributed. Still, Locker has to recognize pressure better and operate to protect himself and the football. He also fumbled the football 4 times (all of them lost) in 2012 usually at inopportune times (is there ever an opportune time?).

All of this leads to the question of how good Locker needs to be in 2013 to satisfy the coaching staff and owner Bud Adams. Really what the fans think isn't that important. They say winning cures all and certainly winning more games in 2013 will help. Here is where I think the Titans would like to see improvement in 2013.

TIME OF POSSESSION

The Titans time of possession stats in 2012 were beyond atrocious. I wrote about it extensively in my game blogs if you are interested. While not all a product of the passing game that certainly contributed and this is a stat I believe without a shadow of a doubt the Titans want to see improved.

RED ZONE SUCCESS

The Titans ranked 22nd in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage based on touchdowns only. This is down significantly from 2011 and it is beyond embarrassing that they ranked only 25% efficiency in the red zone at LP Field. Not coincidentally, they also finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring points at 23.

PASSING EFFICIENCY

I labeled this efficiency and not accuracy with good reason. I have said time and again I think the accuracy issue is overblown. I think the Titans would far prefer to see less sacks, less batted passes and more production than they care about whether Locker throws a pretty pass. The first I have alluded to but one more stat I find discouraging from Locker's 2012 season is that his yards per attempt fell dramatically. Of course, the 2011 season is a small sample size and 6.9 isn't terrible. Locker ranked 18th amongst starting NFL quarterbacks in yards per pass thrown but dang if that 8.2 from 2011 isn't enticing. The Titans passing game ranked 22nd in the NFL in passing yards per game.

OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION

Obviously this is a catchall phrase and area but really if the Titans score points and win games isn't the goal accomplished? The Titans in 2012 finished in the lower half of the NFL in points, passing yards, rushing yards and total offensive yards. Per Football Outsiders, the Titans offense was ranked 29th in the league in offensive efficiency. Offensive production doesn't occur in a vacuum and in order to have a successful one the Titans must operate on all cylinders. Of course he was injured, but I expect the Titans to make better use of Locker's ability to operate out of the pocket and make plays in 2013 whether passing or running.

What are your expectations for Jake Locker in 2013?

NOTE: THIS IS MY LATEST BLOG FROM BREATHE IF YOU LOVE FOOTBALL

Check Yo Self - Have I Been Fair to Mike Munchak?

Check Yo Self  "Ice Cube"

I have written a lot about the current state of Mike Munchak's job status and his tenure as the head coach of the Tennessee Titans. Clearly this is a key year for Munchak who suffered through a disappointing 6-10 season with the Titans in 2012 that was topped off by embarrassing losses to the Minnesota Vikings (30-7), Chicago Bears (51-20) and Green Bay Packers (55-7). They say time heals all wounds but that last one was particularly bad since I had the pleasure (or maybe misfortune) to see it in person.

Recently, I began to think about Munchak's status and whether *I* have unfairly criticized him and whether the 'hot seat" status I have placed on him is unfair. To be fair, I do think Munchak simply has to produce better in 2013. Munchak is signed through 2014 but the lesser of two evils beyond firing is to be on "lame duck" status. I'm certain Munchak would prefer to have the type of season that owner Bud Adams views extension worthy. The definition of what season justifies an extension might be debatable but clearly being in the playoff hunt is mandatory.

Part of the genesis of this blog arose out of my look at the last 3 years of the Titans draft picks under former head coach Jeff Fisher and my comparison of the 2011 and 2012 drafts under current coach Mike Munchak. Then I considered the circumstances leading up to Munchak's ascension to the head coaching position and questions arose. I truly do try to be as fair as possible and I now wonder if perhaps i have been unfair.

PULL MY FINGER I DARE YOU

Munchak, who had never been more than offensive line coach for the Titans, was elevated to head coach on February 7, 2011. The Titans had parted ways with former head coach Jeff Fisher on January 27, 2011 after what can only be described as a turbulent offseason that also led to the departure of former first round pick and Bud Adams' "golden boy" Vince Young on January 5, 2011. Adams had only recently committed to Fisher coaching out the final year of his contract after apparently winning out an internal battle between Fisher and Young. I won't go into the details of their troubled relationship as they are readily available and widely known.

My point is that Munchak essentially took over a franchise that was clearly fractured, in disarray and in badly need of a makeover. Munchak himself apparently believed change was necessary in his first presser. The new regime took over just two months away from the 2011 draft with no franchise quarterback and badly in need of a plan. The harsh reality is that change rarely happens overnight and Munchak inherited a team with a lot of issues. The Titans would select Jake Locker with the #8 overall selection and sign veteran Matt Hasselbeck. They also added safety Jordan Babineaux. Otherwise, the free agent signings had very little impact. Amazingly, that team would finish 9-7 in what can only be considered an overachieving year characterized by excellent play overall from quarterback Matt Hasselbeck.

The 2012 offseason was dominated by the competition between incumbent quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and 2011 first round draft pick Jake Locker. The Titans were looking to improve on 2011 and added another solid draft class. They also signed defensive end Kamerion Wimbley and left guard Steve Hutchinson. The other free agent signings during the 2012 offseason had very little impact. The Titans would finish 2012 with a 6 and 10 record.

Look, I am not going to excuse the Titans performance in 2012 and I have discussed a lot of the reasons why the team under-performed elsewhere but geez Louise if it go could wrong it did for the Titans. An offensive line that has been long overrated (at least in the interior) was decimated by injuries and the safety position was a hot mess caused in large part by the coaching staff. On top of that quarterback Jake Locker hurt his left and non-throwing shoulder in the first game and would later suffer re-injury to the same shoulder and miss the bulk of the middle of the season. On his return, he was faced with a patchwork offensive line that left him in large part running for his life.

Having said that, that overrated offensive line was a product of Mike Munchak and offensive line coach Bruce Matthews. While Rome wasn't built in a day the free agent signings to date haven't made a big impact, and the players Munchak has played since taking over as head coach have largely been draft picks and players from the Fisher era. How long should it take to do a complete team makeover? That is the question I am currently pondering.

You often hear the media and fans talk about letting college football coaches "build a roster" suited to their style before judging their performance. The average seems to be between 3 to 5 years. The extent to which that happens in reality is debatable for certain but the concept is surely there. Here is some more reality in that most teams that are fractured the way the Titans were rarely recover quickly and usually it takes exceptional circumstances for it to happen.

Look, we know the NFL is a results driven league. However, Munchak is entering his 3rd year as head coach of the Tennessee Titans and generally speaking the first year you expect a coach to field a team with the majority of his hand picked players. While certainly a key year for Munchak and the Titans, should this year make or break his tenure as head coach? This is the question I am currently pondering.

Titans on the Hot Seat in 2013 - Players

Obviously the entire Titans organization is on notice to produce in 2013 but there are several Titans management, coaches and players who in particular are on the hot seat in 2013. Which ones are they? I previously took at look at Titans on the Hot Seat in 2013 - Management as well as Titans on the Hot Seat in 2013 - Coaches but now let's take a look at which players are on the hot seat, starting with the most obvious of all choices.

PLAYERS

QUARTERBACK JAKE LOCKER

Entering his third season, quarterback Jake Locker looks to rebound from a disappointing 2012 campaign. During the 2012 offseason, Locker won a "quarterback competition" that some believed was weighted in his favor and assumed the starting role over incumbent Matt Hasselbeck. He went into 2012 with high expectations.

Locker suffered an injury to his left non-throwing shoulder in the first game against the New England Patriots in the 4th quarter but returned to action in game 2 against San Diego. His shoulder was re-injured in game 4 (it was later revealed to be a separated shoulder) with the Houston Texans when he took a punishing blow from Glover Quinn. He returned to action in game 10 versus Miami. Overall, 2012 was a tough season for the young quarterback not only due to his own injury but to injuries to the offensive line. The offense was generally ineffective even when veteran Hasselbeck was under center.

Locker underwent offseason surgery to repair his left shoulder and is projected to be ready for training camp. Locker is under contract through 2014 and his salary is fully guaranteed (2013: $1,519,182, 2014: $2,091,273) per Rotoworld. The Titans exchanged Hasselbeck for veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick during the offseason but if Locker struggles in 2013 you would expect the Titans to hedge their bets. Analyzing the Ryan Fitzpatrick Move

Jake Locker bio

RUNNING BACK CHRIS JOHNSON

After struggling the first half of the season, running back Chris Johnson returned somewhat to form midway through the season, enough so that the "powers that be" who are on the hot seat such as coaches and management opted to pay Johnson his $2,000,000.00 signing bonus and absorb his $10,000,000.00 salary in 2013. Johnson has salaries of $8,000,000.00 in 2014 and $7,000,000.00 in 2015 and will be 28 years old at the beginning of the 2013 season. Unless he simply has an outstanding year in 2013 it is difficult to imagine the Titans, or any other team, paying him that type of salary. I wouldn't expect Johnson to renegotiate his contract with the Titans and therefore I don't expect to see him in two tone blue past the 2013 season.

Chris Johnson bio

WIDE RECEIVER KENNY BRITT

While troubled wide receiver Kenny Britt appears to have survived continuing offseason issues, an ACL injury in 2011, and an on the field disappearing act in 2012 to remain on the roster in 2013 his days as a Titan are likely numbered. Britt is incredibly talented and seems to be a likeable guy but he just doesn't seem to learn from his mistakes. Britt is also entering a contract year and is slated to make $1,347,500.00 in 2013. Regardless, Britt is playing for his next contract no matter the source and 2013 is a huge year for him.

Kenny Britt bio

MIDDLE LINEBACKER COLIN MCCARTHY

When healthy, middle linebacker Colin McCarthy is a force on the field. A 4th round draft pick out of Miami in in 2011, McCarthy became a started as well as a leader on the defense his rookie year. Sadly, injuries since then have marred what appeared to be a very promising beginning for the young linebacker. He appeared in only 7 games in 2012, losing time first to a high ankle sprain and later to a concussion. The Titans defense really suffers when McCarthy isn't on the field. He is signed through 2014 but if he can't stay healthy and produce in 2013 you can expect the Titans to start looking at their options.

Colin McCarthy bio

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER AKEEM AYERS

Former UCLA linebacker Akeem Ayers has played every game since his rookie season in 2011 and he immediately became a reliable and at times impact player for the Titans. Along with fellow linebackers McCarthy and second year man Zach Brown, they form an exciting and promising trio. For Ayers however, the new rookie salary scale means he is playing for his next contract sooner than those in previous years and he is under contract only through 2014. So while not on the hot seat, I added him here because 2013 is definitely a key year for him as he enters "playing for your next contract" territory.

Akeem Ayers bio

SAFETY MICHAEL GRIFFIN

Many expected the Titans might part ways with safety Michael Griffin after an up and down 2012 season but the Titans opted to pick up his roster bonus and absorb his $3,500,000.00 salary during the offseason. However, the Titans also signed safety George Wilson to a two year deal. Like Britt, Griffin is a gifted athlete who has shown flashes of greatness but with his salary escalating to $6.2 milly in 2014 this is a make or break year for the young safety.

Michael Griffin bio

CORNERBACK ALTERRAUN VERNER

Former UCLA cornerback Alterraun Verner is entering the final year of his rookie deal and will be a free agent in 2014. A 4th round pick in in 2010 and a solid player for the Titans, Verner has watched the Titans draft competition since his rookie year and has still retained his starting role. However, during the offseason and prior to the draft the Titans expressed an interest in adding a cornerback who can play press coverage and they drafted UConn defensive back Blidi Wreh-Wilson in round 3 of the 2013 draft. Verner seems headed to the slot where he will likely compete with second year man Coty Sensabaugh who had a solid rookie campaign.

DEFENSIVE END DERRICK MORGAN

Defensive end Derrick Morgan enters 2013 under high hopes that he can continue the promise and progress he showed in 2012. A first round draft pick (#16 overall) in 2010, Morgan's season was cut short by an ACL injury. He returned to action in 2011 playing 15 games but only showed flashes of the ability he showed while playing at Georgia Tech. Morgan had an underrated 2012 where he registered 9 sacks, 21 quarterback hits, and 42 quarterback hurries.. He also batted down 4 passes. Morgan is under contract through 2015, but that is a voidable year. While his salary in 2014 is certainly reasonable at $1.4 million he is definitely entering "playing for your next contract territory." 

Derrick Morgan bio

DEFENSIVE END KAMERION WIMBLEY

Frankly, I hated adding Kam Wimbley to this list as he also had a very underappreciated 2012 along with fellow defensive end Derrick Morgan. Yet, first and foremost the NFL is a business and you have to wonder what the Titans will do as Wimbley's contract figures for 2014 through 2016 continue to escalate. Is it too early to add Wimbley to this list? Maybe so but with a salary of $6,000,000.00 it isn't out of the question to think that 2013 is a key year for him.

Kam Wimbley bio

DEFENSIVE TACKLE JURRELL CASEY

Add Jurrell Casey to the list of Titans playing for their next contract. Casey has been outstanding and is entering the third year of a 4 year deal. The addition of Sammie Lee Hill should help Casey as he typically faced double and at times triple teams in 2012 and still managed to be an impact player. If Casey has the year you expect him to have, I look for the Titans to begin negotiating to extend him if the team plays well and there isn't a change in management/coaching. If there is, he could be playing for his next contract with another team if the new staff decides to go in a different direction.

Jurrell Casey bio

DEFENSIVE TACKLE KARL KLUG

Another guy playing for his next contract is 3rd year defensive lineman Karl Klug. Despite a solid rookie campaign where he led all rookie defensive tackles in sacks at 7, Klug saw limited playing time in 2012. The addition of Mike Martin and a general change in philosophy toward bigger DTs clearly affected Klug's stock and he has to find a way to get back on the field because he is also only signed through 2014 and is playing for his next contract. 

Karl Klug bio

OFFENSIVE TACKLE DAVID STEWART

David "Big Country" Stewart is a popular guy who is well liked and he has been a solid and dependable player since being drafted in the 4th round by the Titans in the 2005 NFL draft. Stewart broke his right leg in  game 13 of the 2012 season but it appears he will be ready for training camp. The Titans picked up his $1,000,000.00 roster bonus during the offseason and all appearances indicate they will absorb his $5,000,000.00 salary. Stewart is slated to earn $6.4 million in 2014 but it is a voidable year and he will be 32 years old. 

David Stewart bio

OFFENSIVE TACKLE MICHAEL ROOS

Like fellow lineman Big Country Stewart, but without the injury, Roos enters 2013 facing a voidable year at his contract in 2014 and his salary numbers are likewise high. He will earn $6,000,000.00 in 2013 and that escalates to $6.625 million in 2014 when he will likewise turn 32.

Mike Roos bio 

OFFENSIVE LINEMAN FERNANDO VELASCO

When the Titans tagged Fernando Velasco I truly expected he would be considered a lock at center. Velasco had an outstanding 2012 in his first year starting for the Titans. An undrafted free agent who spent 2 years on the practice squad before making the 53 in 2010 Velasco is a versatile lineman who can play both center and guard. Given that the Titans selected one of the best centers in the 2013 draft in Brian Schwenke, Velasco will be competing at center and guard for a spot on the roster in 2014.

Fernando Velasco bio

NOTES:

There are also several Titans who are playing under one year deals like Bernard Pollard that I didn't include on this list because of course 2013 would be key years. Also, there are other players you could add to the "playing for their next contract" list but I elected to go with only those players who have been or are expected to be key contributors. Finally, I didn't include Eugene Amano because with a 2013 salary of $3.685 it is hard to imagine he will be on the roster in 2013.