Locker Up - How Good Does the Titan Quarterback Need to be in 2013?

Much of the Titans offseason talk has included discussion of third year quarterback Jake Locker, his "accuracy issue" and whether Ryan Fitzpatrick could push him for a starting job. In my "hot seat" list I did include Locker for reasons that are readily apparent in the article. Clearly Locker has to improve on his 2012 season. Having said that, I do believe there is potential for expectations to be too high for Locker. Why do you ask? Let me explain.

Locker was drafted in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft and played sparingly his first season. With limited snaps however, he looked good.

I think we often forget how good Locker looked that year and how excited everyone was about what they saw in his performance. Sadly, his performance in 2012 was marred by injury, not only to himself but on the offensive line. Add to that inconsistency in the running game and some inexcusable drops from his receivers and his 2012 looks bad.

Two things in particular concern me about Locker's 2012 and neither really have to do with "accuracy" per se. One, he had 11 batted passes and that didn't appear to be an issue in 2011 (he had 2). His release point does seem a little low and how much of that was attributed to guarding and his left shoulder injury is a question mark for me. Regardless, that is an area he must work on.

OUCH

Locker took 5 sacks in his rookie campaign out of 76 dropbacks. In 2012 he took 25 sacks out of 370 dropbacks. His most significant injury occurred when he was sacked by Glover Quin. Of course, this isn't all Locker's fault. Chris Johnson needs to block better for one. I also think former offensive coordinator Chris Palmers' system contributed. Still, Locker has to recognize pressure better and operate to protect himself and the football. He also fumbled the football 4 times (all of them lost) in 2012 usually at inopportune times (is there ever an opportune time?).

All of this leads to the question of how good Locker needs to be in 2013 to satisfy the coaching staff and owner Bud Adams. Really what the fans think isn't that important. They say winning cures all and certainly winning more games in 2013 will help. Here is where I think the Titans would like to see improvement in 2013.

TIME OF POSSESSION

The Titans time of possession stats in 2012 were beyond atrocious. I wrote about it extensively in my game blogs if you are interested. While not all a product of the passing game that certainly contributed and this is a stat I believe without a shadow of a doubt the Titans want to see improved.

RED ZONE SUCCESS

The Titans ranked 22nd in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage based on touchdowns only. This is down significantly from 2011 and it is beyond embarrassing that they ranked only 25% efficiency in the red zone at LP Field. Not coincidentally, they also finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring points at 23.

PASSING EFFICIENCY

I labeled this efficiency and not accuracy with good reason. I have said time and again I think the accuracy issue is overblown. I think the Titans would far prefer to see less sacks, less batted passes and more production than they care about whether Locker throws a pretty pass. The first I have alluded to but one more stat I find discouraging from Locker's 2012 season is that his yards per attempt fell dramatically. Of course, the 2011 season is a small sample size and 6.9 isn't terrible. Locker ranked 18th amongst starting NFL quarterbacks in yards per pass thrown but dang if that 8.2 from 2011 isn't enticing. The Titans passing game ranked 22nd in the NFL in passing yards per game.

OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION

Obviously this is a catchall phrase and area but really if the Titans score points and win games isn't the goal accomplished? The Titans in 2012 finished in the lower half of the NFL in points, passing yards, rushing yards and total offensive yards. Per Football Outsiders, the Titans offense was ranked 29th in the league in offensive efficiency. Offensive production doesn't occur in a vacuum and in order to have a successful one the Titans must operate on all cylinders. Of course he was injured, but I expect the Titans to make better use of Locker's ability to operate out of the pocket and make plays in 2013 whether passing or running.

What are your expectations for Jake Locker in 2013?

NOTE: THIS IS MY LATEST BLOG FROM BREATHE IF YOU LOVE FOOTBALL

A Look at Andy Levitre - The Titans Bright Shiny New Toy

The Titans made moves early yesterday following the beginning of the new league year (Happy New Year!) and both moves made a lot of sense and filled positions that needed bolstering. The Titans generally shy away from "big name" signings but couldn't resist the lure of former Bills left guard Andy Levitre. You might recall I wasn't a big fan of the signing before free agency began. The OG Conundrum: What Should the TItans Do

After I wrote that blog, left guard Steve Hutchinson opted to retire due to problems with a right knee injury suffered in a 24-10 loss to the Houston Texans on December 2, 2012. Hutchinson also saw his 2010 and 2011 seasons cut short due to injuries. Given that the Titans already had a glaring hole at right guard a move to replace Hutchinson made a ton of sense. Enter Levitre.

The Buffalo Bills drafted Oregon State left guard Andy Levitre in the second round (51st overall pick) in the 2009 NFL draft. Levitre was very well regarded offensive line prospect coming out of Oregon State and immediately made his way onto the starting roster, playing all 16 games and only missing 15 snaps in his rookie season. How well did he do overall? Let's take a look.

As referenced earlier, he started immediately but it safe to say his rookie season was less than noteworthy as he understandably struggled in his transition to the big leagues. According to PFF, he ranked 72 out of all guards. He had 5 penalties, allowed one sack, 9 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback hurries. The Bills run game was average and Fred Jackson rushed for 1067 yards with a 4.5 YPC.

Fortunately, his next few years were much better as he gradually improved. In 2010, he again played all 16 games but he did miss more snaps at 52 (all in the second game versus Green Bay). He struggled some but overall his play was an awful lot better and he finished 36 among all guards according to PFF. He had 8 penalties, allowed 2 quarterback sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback hurries. Unfortunately, the run game was nothing special as Fred Jackson rushed for 939 yards with a 4.2 YPC and CJ Spiller rushed for 283 yards with a 3.8 YPC.

I think its safe to say that in 2011 Levitre fulfilled the promise that led the Bills to draft him in the second round. He played 16 games, didn't miss a snap, was excellent overall and finished 6th in guard rankings by PFF. He had 5 penalties, and allowed 5 quarterback sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 11 quarterback hurries. This was by far Levitre's best year in the run game as both Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller had good years. Jackson rushed for 934 yards with a 5.5 YPC while Spiller added 601 yards and a 5.6 YPC.

Levitre continued his excellent play in 2012 once again playing all 16 games, never missing a snap and finishing as the 9th ranked guard according to PFF. He had 5 penalties, and allowed one sack, 3 quarterback hits and 7 quarterback hurries. CJ Spiller racked up 1244 yards with a 6.0 YPC and Jackson added 437 yards with a 3.8 YPC.

Having determined that Levitre is a good player, did the Titans make a good decision with the contract offered him? That's probably debatable but you don't get good players cheaply. Full contract details are unknown, but the deal is a 6 year, $46.8 million with a $10.5 million dollar signing bonus. The deal averages to 7.8 million dollars per year but Jason La Canfora reported on twitter that the first year salary was $13 million, and that the second year was $6.5 million ($19.5 million over the first 2 years) or a $9.75 million average over the first 2 years.

Realistically, the odds of Levitre completing the full length of the deal are debatable and the real value is not yet known. He would be 33 years old at the completion of the contract assuming he does complete it.

A front loaded deal isn't terrible since the Titans currently have the money, there is a minimum requirement that each team spend 89 percent of the salary cap each year beginning in the 2013 league year, and the signing bonus and first year salary for Levitre will go toward satisfying that requirement.

Moreover, after the first 2 years, the contract value is $16.8 or a $4.2 million average per year. The contract is certainly big but you weren't going to sign one of the best guards on the market for peanuts. Louis Vasquez, the other top rated guard, signed with the Denver Broncos for approximately $6 million per year with $13 million guaranteed.

Did the Titans "overpay" in signing Levitre? Maybe so. If it allows Jake Locker to develop and improves the Titans run game will anyone really care? Probably not.

For those who are interested, here is a link to the Titans salary cap information per spotrac.com.

The OG conundrum - What Should the Titans Do?

There is little question the Titans have to address their interior offensive line. It is widely expected the Titans will look to the draft at the position, and it is also widely reported they are looking at Buffalo guard Andy Levitre. My initial thought was that it didn't make a lot of sense financially to sign Levitre and after looking at the issue I remain convinced it's not. Why do you say? Well, let's take a look.

First, let's debunk the myth that it is financially unsound to draft an offensive guard in the first round. Chance Warmack has long been on my wish list. Does it make sense economically to draft him at #10? Well, let's look at what the 10th round draft pick received as his rookie deal. All contract information came from the excellent website www.rotoworld.com

2012 NFL Draft #10 – Stephon Gilmore

4 year 12.084 million dollar fully guaranteed contract

7.228 million signing bonus

2013 939,280

2014 1,488,559

2015 2,037,839

TITANS STARTING OFFENSIVE LINE CONTRACTS

Steve Hutchinson 

3/15/2012: Signed a three-year, $16 million contract. The deal contains $6 million guaranteed, including a $4.5 million signing bonus. 2013: $4.75 million (+ $500,000 roster bonus), 2014: $5 million, 2015: Free Agent

Eugene Amano

2/15/2010: Signed a five-year, $26.247 million contract. The deal contains $10.337 million guaranteed -- a $7.25 million signing bonus and $3.087 million of his first-year salary. 2013: $3.685 million, 2014: $4,187,500, 2015: Free Agent

Michael Roos

4/25/2008: Signed a six-year, $43 million contract. The deal contains $15 million guaranteed, including a $9 million signing bonus and a second-year roster bonus of $4 million. Another $1.5 million is available through escalators. 2013: $6 million, 2014: $6.625 million (Voidable Year), 2015: Free Agent

Dave “Big Country” Stewart

6/27/2008: Signed a six-year, $38.9 million contract. The deal contains $10 million guaranteed, including a $6 million signing bonus and a first-year roster bonus of $2 million. 2013: $5 million (+ $1 million roster bonus), 2014: $6.4 million (Voidable Year), 2015: Free Agent

The Titans are talking to Leroy Harris about his return to the team, and I don't hate that move if they are looking to move him back to center where he played much better. The Titans are expected to tender RFA Fernando Velasco a guard the Titans moved to center last season when Amano was lost for the season and who played very well.

TOP OFFENSIVE GUARD CONTRACTS

Jahri Evans

5/5/2010: Signed a seven-year, $56.7 million contract. The deal included a $12 million signing bonus. An annual $200,000 workout bonus is available throughout the life of the contract. 2013: $3.04 million (+ $4.16 million "signing" bonus), 2014-2015: $6.8 million (+ $500,000 roster bonuses), 2016: $8 million (+ $500,000 roster bonus), 2017: Free Agent

Evan Mathis

3/17/2012: Signed a five-year, $25 million contract. The deal contains $7 million guaranteed, including a $5 million signing bonus. Another $6.25 million is available through incentives. 2013: $2 million (+ $1 million roster bonus due 3/24), 2014: $5 million, 2015: $5.5 million, 2016: $6 million, 2017: Free Agent

Marshal Yanda

7/29/2011: Signed a five-year, $32.5 million contract. The deal included a $10 million signing bonus. 2013: $4.5 million, 2014-2015: $5.5 million, 2016: Free Agent

Alex Boone

12/8/2011: Signed a five-year, $7.450 million contract. The deal contains $2.24 million guaranteed, including a $1.7 million signing bonus. Annual $50,000 workout bonuses are available throughout the contract's life. 2013: $950,000 (+ $600,000 roster bonus), 2014: $950,000 (+ $400,000 roster bonus), 2015: $1.2 million (+ $400,000 roster bonus), 2016: Free Agent

Mike Iupati

7/30/2010: Signed a five-year, $18.25 million contract. The deal contains $10.8 million guaranteed. 2013: $1.002 million, 2014: $1,600,500, 2015: Free Agent

Josh Sitton

9/2/2011: Signed a six-year, $34.95 million contract. The deal contains $8.9 million guaranteed, including a $6 million signing bonus. Annual $300,000 workout bonuses are available in years two through six. 2013: $3.4 million (+ $650,000 roster bonus), 2014: $4.5 million (+ $400,000 roster bonus), 2015: $4.85 million (+ $400,000 roster bonus), 2016: $5.9 million (+ $400,000 roster bonus), 2017: Free Agent

Ben Grubbs

3/14/2012: Signed a five-year, $36 million contract. The deal contains $15.9 million guaranteed, including a $10 million signing bonus and all of his first two base salaries. Grubbs is eligible for annual $100,000 workout bonuses throughout the contract's life. 2013: $1.2 million (+ $4 million "signing" bonus), 2014: $6 million, 2015: $6.5 million, 2016: $7.2 million, 2017: Free Agent

Jon Asamoah

Rookie contract - 7/22/2010: Signed a four-year, $2.702 million contract. The deal included a $912,120 signing bonus. 2013: $1.323 million, 2014: Free Agent

Rob Sims

10/8/2010: Signed a five-year, $8.051 million contract. 2013: $1.85 million, 2014: $2.2 million, 2015: Free Agent

Kevin Zeitler

5/25/2012: Signed a four-year, $7.544 million contract. The deal contains $6.124 million guaranteed -- a $3.926 million signing bonus and Zeitler's first three base salaries. 2013: $732,918, 2014: $1,075,836, 2015: $1,418,754, 2016: Free Agent

Chris Snee

6/24/2008: Signed a six-year, $41.25 million contract. The deal contains $17 million guaranteed, including a $13.5 million signing bonus. Another $2 million is available through escalators. 2013: $6.7 million, 2014: $6.95 million (Voidable Year), 2015: Free Agent

Chris Chester

7/28/2011: Signed a five-year, $20 million contract. The deal contains $6.5 million in bonus money. An annual $400,000 roster bonus is due to Chester in years two through five. 2013-2014: $3 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2015: $3.5 million, 2016: Free Agent

While not a top 15 guard but informational 

Richie Incognito

3/03/2011 signed a 3 year 12.9 million dollar guaranteed deal

3.25 million signing bonus and 1.1 million in incentives

2013 4 million + 100,000 workout bonus

THE FREE AGENT MARKET AT GUARD

Top free agents offensive guards are Andy Levitre and Louis Vasquez although it is widely reported Vasquez will get a new deal from San Diego. Brandon Moore (almost 33) is a guy I wouldn't mind the Titans looking at. He is unlikely to command the attention (or money) that Levitre and Vasquez will and is highly regarded in both pass protection and run blocking. 

Levitre (almost 27) plays left guard is expected to command between $6 million and $8 million ANNUALLY on the open market and if Vasquez (almost 26) who plays right guard hits it he will get similar numbers. Of the two Vasquez is considered the better run blocker so he would make the most sense for the Titans. Levitre’s run blocking has been described as average. Ouch.

What I Would Do

Steve Hutchinson is still a decent option at left guard and the real issue for the Titans is RIGHT guard and center. Assuming the Titans tender Velasco and another team doesn't snatch him (which I doubt), then center seems to be addressed for the moment. 

At the guard position, I would sign Brandon Moore who plays right guard, and draft at least one guard in the draft and I would take Warmack if he is there at 10. Kyle DeVan and Deuce Lutui are both free agents and I would let them walk and give some undrafted free agents a chance to make a mark in camp.

Let's not forget that for all the money the Titans have tied up at tackle, Roos and Stewart are 30 and the Titans will need to address that area sooner rather than later. Tying big money up for Levitre or Vasquez doesn't make a ton of sense to me when you are looking to rebuild an offensive line. 

Offensive Line Prospects for the Titans - Larry Warford

LARRY WARFORD - OFFENSIVE LINEMAN/GUARD KENTUCKY

Larry Warford is another good guard prospect for the Titans and another SEC player who earned recognition during his playing career. Warford projects as a 3rd round talent and posted pretty decent numbers at the combine. A former basketball player, he is surprisingly good on his feet for his size and has decent lateral movement. He looks to be a player who could get plugged in to play fairly early on his professional career. 

CBS Draft Profile

NFL Draft Profiile

Offensive Line Prospects for the Titans - Alvin Bailey

ALVIN BAILEY - OFFENSIVE LINEMAN ARKANSAS

I saw this player mocked to the Titans prior to the draft and made a mental note to check him (which I promptly lost). Fortunately, the Combine put him back on my radar and he is fast becoming someone I think the Titans should consider in rounds 3 or 4, even if they are able to snag one of the premier guards earlier on. Let's face it the interior line has been a hot mess for a while now and realistically the Titans need help at both guard positions. Enter one Alvin Bailey who not only has played BOTH left and right guard but is also a good player who has seen the "bright lights." At 6' 3" and 312 pounds, Bailey is a load. A bit of a project, surely two HOF offensive linemen in Bruce Matthews and Mike Munchak can have this guy game ready by August.

CBS Sports Draft Profile

NFL Draft Profile

Offensive Line Prospects for the Titans - Terron Armstead

TERRON ARMSTEAD - OFFENSIVE LINEMAN ARKANSAS PINE BLUFF

One player who appears to be on the rise is small school offensive lineman Terron Armstead of Arkansas Pine Bluff. Unfortunately, his stock is really starting to rise and he may get drafted before I expect the Titans to look at the tackle position (although I have seen him listed at OG). Also, its not out of the question that hte Titans might actually look at tackle this year and early on, given the age of their current tackles and the lack of good options behind them. Armstead really shined at the Combine and wasn't too shabby at the Shrine Game either. At 6' 5' and 306 his frame reminds me a bit of Mike Roos who plays tackle for the Titans.

CBS Sports Draft Profile

NFL Draft Profile

Offensive Line Prospects for the Titans - Barrett Jones

BARRETT JONES - OFFENSIVE LINEMAN ALABAMA

Every year draft people and draftniks have a player they just seem to love and for me its Barrett Jones. A 4 year starter for Alabama, Jones has played, and excelled at , every single position on the offensive line. His versatility and leadership helped fuel multiple National Championship runs, a stellar Bama run game, and multiple college achievements and awards. The list of awards could fill a blog alone but I won't bore you with it. Projections differ but whoever drafts Jones gets a smart player who should enjoy a long and successful career.

CBS Sports Draft Profile

NFL Draft Profile

Offensive Line Prospects for the Titans - Jonathan Cooper

JONATHAN COOPER - OFFENSIVE GUARD NORTH CAROLINA

Like Chance Warmack, North Carolina offensive guard Jonathan Cooper is very highly regarded in this draft. Really, in my mind and eye there isn't much separating the two and the Titans couldn't go wrong drafting either player. Its also certainly not out of the question that the Titans could draft TWO offensive linemen either. Let's not forget the Titans will be looking at the tackle position in the not too distant future.

CBS Sports Draft Profile

NFL Draft Profile

Offensive Line Prospects for the Titans - Chance Warmack

CHANCE WARMACK - OFFENSIVE GUARD ALABAMA

Much has been written about this stud offensive guard from National Championship team Bama. I wrote about him in my pre-combine blog and he is still one of my favorite players in this draft. Highly regarded as one of the most "elite" players in this draft, Warmack is certain to go high and most assuredly fills a position of need for the Titans.

CBS Sports Draft Profile

NFL Draft Profile