Compensatory picks should be interesting for the Titans in 2014

While I was working on my analysis of the draft some thoughts occurred to me about next year's draft and the Titans trade of their 3rd round pick. It will be interesting to see if the Titans get any compensatory picks next year. Why do you say? Let's take a look

The exact formula for compensatory picks is super secret but generally speaking  a team losing more or better compensatory free agents than it acquires in the previous year is eligible to receive compensatory draft picks. NFL awards 2013 compensatory picks 

In order to receive a comp pick, the team must have lost a free agent and have not replaced that player with a quality free agent, based on salary, playing time and post season awards. The two players the Titans lost with the best free agent contracts are Jared Cook and Matt Hasselbeck. Sen'Derrick Marks signed with the Jags but his contract is for one year and 1.5 million (fully guaranteed). The Titans signed former Lions DT Sammie Lee Hill to a 3 year 11.4 million dollar contract that has 4 million guaranteed. 

Jared Cook signed a 5 year 35.11 million dollar contract so he is the most likely candidate for a comp pick. His deal contains a 19 million dollar guarantee and he is clearly a player the Rams are looking to get playing time and production. They did draft Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey and Zac Stacy though so its certainly possible his potential production suffers for it.

By contrast, the Titans signed former San Francisco Forty Niner Delanie Walker (one of my free agent wishes) to a 4 year 17.5 million dollar deal with 8.6 million guaranteed. Despite the addition of Justin Hunter, Walker is certain to see a lot of playing time.

Matt Hasselbeck signed with the Colts on a 2 year 7.25 million dollar contract with 3 million guaranteed. Hasselbeck will be backing up incumbent Andrew Luck and if he sees significant playing time its bad news for the Colts and for Luck.

By contrast, the Titans signed former Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to a 2 year 6.5 million dollar contract with a base salary of 3.25 million. Given questions regarding Jake Locker's shoulder it is certainly possible Fitzpatrick could see playing time.

While there are still some free agents unsigned, it is highly unlikely anyone gets a contract worth considering. I think a good argument can be made that if the Titans do get a compensatory pick it is because of a failure of their free agency strategy

Analyzing the Ryan Fitzpatrick Move

On Monday, March 18, 2013 the Titans released backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and signed former Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. I was very sad to see Hasselbeck move on to the Colts as he was from all appearances a great teammate and a consumate professional while with the Titans. I for one certainly wish him well in Indy except of course when they play the Titans. Fitzpatrick gets a lot of heat for his body of work in  Buffalo but I have grown to like this move since it was announced. Why do you ask? Let's take a look.

I wrote in my Shonn Greene blog that I believed the Titans could possibly run the read option given the other free agency signings they have made. A Look At Shonn Greene.  Locker showed in 2012 he was still more comfortable operating out of the shotgun and Fitzpatrick is simply better situated to run the offense I expect the Titans to run in 2013. He isn't going to start over Jake Locker and I expect Locker understands the job is his but that he must continue to improve.

Locker is entering the 3rd year of a 4 year rookie deal he entered on 7/29/2011. It is a four-year, $12,586,002 contract. The deal is fully guaranteed, including a $7,653,456 signing bonus and in 2013 he receives $1,519,182. In 2014 he receives $2,091,273, He is a free agent in 2015. www.rotoworld

This next year is a crucial one for Locker who is still recovering from left (non throwing) shoulder surgery. Fitzpatrick is only signed through 2014 and details aren't currently known but this could make Rusty Smith a roster bubble as the Titans could very well draft (or bring in as an unrestricted free agent) a devopmental quarterback as a hedge against their bets on Locker. Fitzgerald I believe will prove to be a capable backup but he isn't going to push Locker for his job. I look to the Titans to bring in a young guy who could push him if not in 2013 then most assuredly in 2014 if Locker struggles again in 2013.

UPDATE: It has now been reported that Fitzpatrick's deal with the Titans is $3.25 million per year for 2 years for a total of $6.5 million per Ian Rapport of NFL.COM.